Credit Bubble Bulletin: The King of Sovereign Subprime

By Doug Noland 04/04/2020 The past week witnessed 6.6 million new U.S. unemployment claims, pushing the two-week surge to a sickening almost 10 million. The U.S. economy is sliding into the steepest of downturns, with awful consequences for society, economic structure and financial stability. But this week’s CBB will focus more on the global [...] Read more

Credit Bubble Bulletin: The Solvency Problem

By Doug Noland 03/28/2020 Being an analyst of Credit and Bubbles over the past few decades has come with its share of challenges. Greater challenges await. I expect to dedicate the rest of my life to defending Capitalism. One of the great tragedies from the failure of this multi-decade monetary experiment will be the loss of faith in free market [...] Read more

Credit Bubble Bulletin: Please Don’t Completely Destroy

By Doug Noland 03/21/2020 I’ve been dreading this. In the midst of all the policy responses to the collapse of the mortgage finance Bubble, I recall writing something to the effect: “I understand we can’t allow the system to collapse, but please don’t inflate another Bubble.” It was obvious early on that policymakers had every intention to reflate [...] Read more

Credit Bubble Bulletin: The Loss of Moneyness

By Doug Noland 03/14/2020 It was as if global markets pulled elements from the 1994 bond market dislocation, 1997’s Asian Bubble collapses, the 1998 Russian/LTCM fiasco, and the 2008 market crash – and synthesized them for a week of ridiculous market instability and dysfunction. Thursday was an extraordinary day of global market panic – The “Worst [...] Read more

Credit Bubble Bulletin: The Modern-Day Bank Run

By Doug Noland 03/07/2020 Pondering the shallowness of the analysis being espoused by the vast majority of market pundits, I’m compelled to frame a thesis to help explain today’s most extraordinary backdrop. The coronavirus outbreak will eventually pass, though I have serious doubts contemporary finance will pass this test. Suggesting history’s [...] Read more

Gold price extends losses – down $78

By Frik Els 02/28/2020 Gold’s reputation as a safe haven in times of financial turmoil was tarnished on Friday as the growing panic about the spread of coronavirus infections outside China saw the precious metal suffer one of its worst one-day drops on record. Gold gapped down at the open on the Comex market in New York and kept declining hitting [...] Read more

Credit Bubble Bulletin: Hair of the Dog

By Doug Noland 02/29/2020 “U.S. Stocks Tumble 11% in Worst Week Since Crisis,” read the Friday evening Bloomberg headline. A Wall Street Journal caption asked the apt question: “U.S. Stocks Were at Records Last Week. What Happened?” A Friday Bloomberg article (Lu Wang) is a reasonable place to start: “It’s a stat so shocking that it’s difficult to [...] Read more

Credit Bubble Bulletin: Pandemic Risk Rising

By Doug Noland 02/22/2020 Coronavirus cases in China surpassed 76,000. Deaths have reached 2,345. The number of new cases has slowed markedly, perhaps owing to repeated changes in the methodology of counting infections. Developments elsewhere are less encouraging. Plans have been drawn to add 19 temporary hospitals in Wuhan. There are reported [...] Read more

Credit Bubble Bulletin: One Extraordinary Year

By Doug Noland 02/15/2020 Confirmed coronavirus cases almost doubled over the past week to 67,000. Part of the spike was the result of including a group diagnosed through CT imaging scans rather than with typical coronavirus testing. The ballooning number of patients with viral symptoms has overwhelmed the capacity for normal testing. Troubling [...] Read more

Credit Bubble Bulletin: Dr. Li Wenliang

By Doug Noland 02/08/2020 The S&P500 rallied 3.2% this week (trading to all-time highs Thursday), more than reversing (by 1.5 times) the previous week’s 2.1% decline. Ten-year Treasury yields rebounded as well, yet the eight bps rise was less than half the previous week’s 18 bps drop. Commodities markets couldn’t muster any recovery this week. [...] Read more

1 2 3 4 5 6 ... 45 >