Credit Bubble Bulletin: Just the Facts (December 27, 2019)

By Doug Noland 12/27/2019 For the Week: The S&P500 added 0.6% (up 29.2% y-t-d), and the Dow increased 0.7% (up 22.8%). The Utilities slipped 0.3% (up 22.2%). The Banks added 0.3% (up 32.3%), while the Broker/Dealers declined 0.8% (up 22.6%). The Transports increased 0.3% (up 19.3%). The S&P 400 Midcaps were little changed (up 24.0%), while [...] Read more

Credit Bubble Bulletin: Last of the Great Central Bankers

By Doug Noland 12/21/2019 Oregon’s economy was at the time ravaged by our nation’s high inflation and Paul Volcker’s battle to rein it in. The state’s unemployment rate was over 10% when I graduated from the University of Oregon in 1984. I don’t recall having animus toward the Federal Reserve but was instead frustrated with Washington’s huge [...] Read more

Credit Bubble Bulletin: Q3 2019 Z.1 Flow of Funds: Repo Madness

By Doug Noland 12/14/2019 Q3 was yet another fascinating quarter for U.S. finance. Total Credit (Non-Financial, Financial and Foreign U.S. borrowings) jumped a nominal $1.075 TN, the strongest quarterly gain since Q4 2007’s $1.159 TN, ending September at $74.862 TN (348% of GDP). Total Credit was up $3.230 TN over the past four quarter (4.5%) and [...] Read more

Beware gold stock downside

Adam Hamilton - Zeal Intelligence 12/13/2019 The gold miners’ stocks have largely been consolidating high following last summer’s powerful upleg. That resilience has left sentiment relatively bullish, with traders mostly expecting this sector to soon start surging again. But the jury is still out on whether gold stocks will be lucky enough to [...] Read more

Operating Policy: Statement Regarding Repurchase Operations

By FED 12/12/2019 The Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has released the schedule of repurchase agreement (repo) operations for the monthly period from December 13, 2019 through January 14, 2020. In accordance with the most recent FOMC directive, the Desk will conduct repo operations to ensure that the [...] Read more

Gold to extend gain as Citi says low US rates here to stay

Gold to extend gain as Citi says low US rates here to stay

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Photo by the Federal Reserve, Flickr. By Ranjeetha Pakiam - Bloomberg News 12/12/2019 Gold’s got more room to rally as there’s little possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in 2020, according to Citigroup Inc. “The bar for the Fed to hike next year is extremely high,” New-York based director Aakash [...] Read more

Really Bad Ideas, Part 8: Yield Curve Control And Mega-Stimulus

BY JOHN RUBINO 12/11/2019 It’s been obvious for a while that the next phase of global monetary madness would be both spectacular and very different from the previous phase. The question was whether the difference would be in degree or kind. Now the answer is looking like “both.” Let’s start with “yield curve control,” in which central banks, [...] Read more

Really Bad Ideas, Part 7: Open Borders

BY JOHN RUBINO 02/22/2019 Now that we’re all free to speak our minds (maybe we should we call this the “post-political-caution world”) a lot of previously discredited ideas have re-emerged and are being tossed into the debate – apparently without much thought to, for instance, their horrendous unintended consequences. One such idea that’s, ahem, [...] Read more

Really Bad Ideas, Part 6: Money That “Rots And Rusts”

BY JOHN RUBINO 02/05/2018 In the next downturn (which may have started last week, yee-haw), the world’s central banks will face a bit of poetic justice: To keep their previous policy mistakes from blowing up the world in 2008, they cut interest rates to historically – some would say unnaturally — low levels, which doesn’t leave the usual amount of [...] Read more

Really Bad Ideas, Part 5: The Fed Should Have – And Defend – An Inflation Target

BY JOHN RUBINO 10/15/2017 Central banks in general and the Fed in particular are struggling to understand a world in which they’ve thrown everything they have at the economy without generating “beneficial” inflation. Their confusion can be traced back to some profoundly false assumptions. Here’s a good overview of the current debate: Fed ‘should [...] Read more

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