By Doug Casey
The task is to make some predictions (although “forecasts” sounds more legitimate) about the Big Picture. OK, I’m game. Let’s write some plausible science fiction, with a tinge of horror story.
First, it’s good to remember that demographics have a life of their own. That’s not good from the point of view of those of us of European descent. We’re only 10% of world population and falling rapidly. Worse, it seems we’re responsible for all the world’s problems and therefore aren’t very popular.
In Europe, I expect the ’20s will have a lot of mass migration, the largest in scale since the barbarian invasions of the fifth century. This time there will be millions, then tens of millions, of Africans coming across the Mediterranean, looking for a higher standard of living—like all migrants.
In the United States there will be hundreds of thousands coming up from Central America. A Reconquista movement will develop, to make the Southwest Hispanic again. And young Chicanos and cholos won’t be interested in paying 50% of their incomes to support old white broads on Social Security in New England.
Meanwhile, lots of Mohammedans from Central Asia will migrate north to Russia.
Millions of Chinese will migrate to Africa. The reason for this is that the Chinese have lent scores of billions of dollars to Africans to build seaports, airports, roads, railroads, mines, and other infrastructure as part of their One Belt, One Road Initiative. They’re repossessing these assets and bringing in their own people in order to run them profitably—as well as disperse excess population.
All of these things will be massively destabilizing.
#2 The Greater Depression
The consequence of scores of trillions of new currency units being printed around the world in response to the crisis that began in 2007 will be acatastrophic Greater Depression. Made worse by negative interest rates. Expect massive unemployment, high retail inflation, a collapse of the bond market, and a much lower stock market. Most important, expect a lower standard of living for the average American.
#3 The Election of a Left-Wing Democrat
One consequence of the Greater Depression will be the election of a left-wing Democrat, if not in 2020, then definitely in 2024. The US has been undergoing what amounts to a cultural revolution, because the universities, media, and entertainment have been captured by the memes of cultural Marxism. The last cultural revolution was in the ’60s. This one will be much more serious, with broader participation. In fact, the US is on the ragged edge of a civil war between the Red counties and the Blue counties. They don’t like each other and don’t share the same values. The best solution is separation.
#4 China Implodes
China is on its way to dominating the world this century. The changes in China over the last 30 years are both real and unparalleled in world history. But in the meantime, its financial system—starting with its banks—will implode. Mrs. Wong will be very, very unhappy to find that 50% of her savings has disappeared.
#5 The United States Starts a Major War
The US is likely to provoke a major war, partly in an attempt to unite a culturally divided country. But not just a sport war such as we’ve had in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan. Probably with China, possibly Russia or Iran. Perhaps with all three. The US won’t do well, since it will find that its aircraft carriers, F-35s, and the like are equivalent to cavalry before WW1 and battleships before WW2.
#6 US Dollar Loses Its Top Status
The US dollar will lose its preeminence and will be treated like a hot potato by foreigners. Trillions will flood back to the US in exchange for whatever is available: land, companies, what have you. This will help take domestic inflation to unprecedented levels. Meanwhile, China, Russia, and numerous other countries want to discard the dollar. It makes no sense to use the currency of your adversary—or enemy. Especially when all dollar transactions have to clear through New York.
Foreign governments have been buying gold in anticipation of this. And the gold price will go considerably higher.
#7 The Singularity
But enough doom and gloom. On the bright side, we’ll approach the Singularity. Many technologies—including artificial intelligence, robotics, space exploration, biotech, genetic engineering, and nanotechnology—are advancing at the rate of Moore’s Law.
As these new technologies come into their own over this decade, the changes they create will be on par with electrification, the automobile, the airplane, and the computer during the 20th century. But all this will happen in a decade or so. These things have the potential to transform the very nature of reality.
What Should You Do?
I can give you a lot of speculations. But in times of radical change the most important thing is to keep what you have.
I suggest three simple actions. Diversify politically and geographically. Buy lots of gold and silver. Have a nice piece of productive land in a reasonably secure jurisdiction.
And get yourself a nice widescreen to watch it all happen. You might as well be entertained…
Editor’s Note: The decade ahead is likely to be an increasingly volatile time. More governments are putting their money printing on overdrive. Negative interests are becoming the rule instead of the exception to it. One thing is for sure, there will be a great deal of change taking place in the years ahead especially for retirees, savers, and investors.